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IPC’s January 2022 Economic Outlook report finds that supply chain challenges remain acute and have improved little from the previous month. Shortages continue to hamper production levels and lead-times remain long. Supply chain challenges will linger well into 2022, and in some instances, into 2023.
Among other data, IPC’s economic outlook report shows:
- Economic growth will be severely muted at the start of the year as Omicron slows economic activity – gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States could drop to as low as 2.5 percent in the first quarter of the year.
- Inflation in Europe shot-up to 4.9 percent in November, the highest level since records began in 1997, two years before the euro was launched.
- Consumer sentiment improved marginally in December, but the gains might be short-lived thanks to rising cases of COVID. Consumer sentiment reached lows in November not seen since 2011.
- The reemergence of COVID had stymied Europe’s recovery early in the year, but Europe is quickly getting growth back on track. Growth in the third quarter was 3.7 percent higher than a year ago.
- The number of employed persons increased by 0.9 percent in both the Euro area and in the European Union during the third quarter, but the unemployment rate has declined slowly during the recovery.
“It has been a tumultuous year and many of the risk factors that are prevalent today will continue through at least the first half of 2022, said IPC Chief Economist and report author Shawn DuBravac. “COVID continues to be a major deterrent to economic growth and while the impact of the current outbreak remains unclear, the uncertainty it has created will hinder the recovery in the early months of the new year. While my expectations for growth for 2021 and 2022 are muted from prior months, I still expect the U.S. economy to grow four percent next year.”
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