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Making A Case for Hope (Jan 2003)
January 28, 2003 |Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Making a Case for Hope
by Dennis P. McGuirk President, IPC
This editorial was first published in the IPC Review, January 2003, and is reprinted with permission. Thanks to IPC Communications Manager Joe Dudeck for his assistance.
The beginning of a New Year and we greet it with hope and optimism. Or do we?
Online, in the press and in the hallways of IPC meetings, the talk is building, subtly at first and now louder and more strident: The United States has lost the PCB and electronics assembly industries. The next year or two will witness the death of U.S. merchant PCB manufacturers and electronics manufacturing services companies.
I don't believe this for a minute and neither should you. No, I am not a wide-eyed optimist. We have witnessed an irrational run-up of the information technology and telecommunications industries (two of our largest markets) and then the utter collapse of both of these markets. As a result, we have experienced the largest decline in the history of both the PCB and electronics assembly industries.
However, the information technology and telecommunications industries will climb back and other market segments will continue to grow. And when they do, so will our industries. Some analysts are even predicting a return to growth as soon as the second or third quarter of 2003. Ed Henderson estimates that the North American PCB market will grow 3 percent this year not great, but better than in the past two years.
Will we see a different industry, especially the PCB industry? Phil Plonski, Prismark Partners, pointed out at the last TMRC meeting that some OEM requirements favor domestic sources: advanced technology not readily available off-shore, quick-turn and small lots and quality requirements. These demands will change the complexion of the PCB industry.
IPC is taking a leadership role in helping the PCB industry stay ahead of these changes. Over a decade ago, IPC worked with its management council to change the name of "board stuffers" and "contract manufacturers" to electronics manufacturing services companies (EMS). There is no doubt that the new name repositioned customers for what would be a wider range of services for this industry segment.
Did this change in names happen overnight? No, but it did happen and became a positive, self-fulfilling prophecy for the EMS industry. And we propose a similar change for PCB manufacturers.
The new name that has been accepted by the PCB Presidents Council Steering Committee and discussed at the last two management council meetings is: Interconnect Manufacturing Services (IMS). We have outlined the rationale for changing the name in the article in this issue entitled "A Rose by Any Other Name."
Will the name be universally accepted and used? No. Will the use of the new name suddenly increase market share and profitability? No. Will the use of IMS begin to reposition the PCB industry as a solutions industry, as an industry manufacturing the foundation for all electronics? Yes.
A new name and a New Year. Maybe we are starting out on a positive note.