-
- News
- Books
Featured Books
- pcb007 Magazine
Latest Issues
Current IssueThe Fabricator’s Guide to IPC APEX EXPO
This issue previews many of the important events taking place at this year's show and highlights some changes and opportunities. So, buckle up. We are counting down to IPC APEX EXPO 2024.
Getting to Know Your Designer
In this issue, we examine how fabs work with their design customers, educating them on the critical elements of fabrication needed to be successful, as well as the many tradeoffs involved. How well do you really know your customer? What makes for a closer, more synchronized working relationship?
Economic Headwinds
In this issue, the biggest names in PCB manufacturing share their economic outlook for the upcoming year and beyond. As you will see, they were all bullish on our industry, but there was some apprehension as well. No one wants to get burned by another the supply chain disruption.
- Articles
- Columns
Search Console
- Links
- Events
||| MENU - pcb007 Magazine
Walt Custer’s Annual Update from productronica 2017
November 21, 2017 | Patty Goldman, I-Connect007Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Industry consultant Walt Custer of Custer Consulting sat down with me at productronica 2017 to once again inform our readers with his yearly update and perspective on what’s happening in the industry. And guess what? It’s good news! Pertinent charts referenced in our conversation are included, but if you want more, Walt invites you to click the link at the end of this conversation and email him directly.
Patty Goldman: Walt, it is good to see you at productronica. How are you doing and how’s the show?
Walt Custer: I'm doing fine. The show is very upbeat. It's busy, and everybody is in a good mood; I think that reflects business conditions. As I look around the world, virtually all areas are growing again. The leading indicators are up, and electronic equipment growth is good, and I think everybody is reflecting a little better times.
Goldman: That's all good news.
Custer: It is. I always try to give both sides of current business conditions , but this year things are mostly good, probably the best in four or five years .
Goldman: Did you anticipate this?
Custer: Slightly. I won't take credit for it, but the leading indicators have been up for six to nine months. And the future looks good. By industry, printed wiring boards aren't growing as much as, say, semiconductors, but I think some of the semiconductor growth may be some double ordering, and inventory building. I have a chart which shows growth by sector of the global electronicsupply chain. Electronic equipment is up this quarter by about 4.5%, but semiconductors are growing at 22%. That growth imbalance worries me (Figure 1).
Goldman: That doesn't sound right, does it?
Custer: No, semiconductor growth seems excessive based on end-market demand. Part of this imbalance is because memory chips are now much more expensive (Figure 2). They were in short supply, so prices were raised. But I also sense there may be some double ordering going on that would boost that growth rate, which means there will be a downward correction at some point in time. Semiconductor capital equipment is booming too. It's up about 28% in the third quarter. Almost all the end markets for electronic equipment are up.
Goldman: Well, let me ask you this. I keep hearing about shortages in the copper foil supply, the resin supply, and even the glass fabric supply. Our industry is pretty picky, and other industries are not as picky and have better pricing. What do you see coming with regard to that?
Custer: I think that was a big issue, but right now the industry is taking a little relaxation period because we're very seasonal, driven by consumer goods, like computers, and cellphones. From a seasonal point of view, we peak in November, and then we slow down for about three months. So that will take some of the pressure off supply that we’ve felt through the busy season. Companies are trying to add capacity to copper foil, but you can't do it overnight. I understand that's a 12- or 18-month cycle or so.
Goldman: I believe it has to do with how long it takes to build the drums that are used to electrodeposit the copper foil.
Custer: So yes, that was a big problem. I looked at some data on Taiwan and China for printed wiring board and laminate monthly sales. For a while, a few months ago, laminate sales were going up much more than printed wiring boards, which indicated there were price increases. But in the last month, they dropped down on the trend line with printed wiring boards, so that suggests to me that the strong price pressure on laminates has eased a little bit over the last couple of months. We’ve finished the busy season for this year, and we're going into the Christmas and first quarter downturn, so my guess is that that the shortages will ease a bit short term.
Page 1 of 3
Suggested Items
Devan Iyer, Industry Leader on Chips Packaging Technology, Joins IPC
03/18/2024 | IPCDevan Iyer, Ph.D., one of the semiconductor industry’s leading technology experts, has joined IPC as its chief strategist for advanced packaging. In this newly created role, Dr. Iyer leads IPC's work with leading electronics companies and governments to identify and deliver news solutions to IPC members and the industry.
IEC Congratulates Bruno Ferri for 25 Years of Service
03/19/2024 | IECPlease join IEC (International Electronic Components) in congratulating Bruno Ferri for 25 years of service and camaraderie. Bruno is an integral part of our team and has significantly contributed to our success.
ROCKA Solutions Expands into Brazil
03/15/2024 | ROCKA SolutionsROCKA Solutions is thrilled to announce its expansion into Brazil. With a commitment to serving the growing needs of the Brazilian electronics manufacturing market, ROCKA has established new distribution and manufacturing services in the region.
Altium to Exhibit Latest Innovations at Embedded World 2024
03/15/2024 | AltiumAltium (ASX: ALU), a global leader in electronics design systems, will be at Embedded World 2024 to reveal its latest innovations across its ecosystem, spanning Altium Designer,
Northrop Grumman Honors Suppliers for Excellence
03/14/2024 | Northrop GrummanNorthrop Grumman Corporation honored more than 70 suppliers for their outstanding contributions in 2023. In an annual recognition event, the companies included women-, minority- and veteran-owned small businesses as well as those operating in underdeveloped areas.